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1 hour ago, ipmsusa2 said:

David, I'm with you, unfortunately.  I'm also disappointed in the weak response from Texas leaders...and this includes most local as well as State.  Worse is the lack of common sense on the part of ordinary Texans. If the great majority had managed to rub two brain cells together, not only would this State be open and functioning, we wouldn't be having this discussion about the Nats.  We'd be looking forward to a great time in San Marcos.  Instead, a high percentage of Texans have demonstrated that they're at least one brain cell short of the number needed to rub together.  And before anyone says anything, you have no idea how much it pains me to make these comments about Texas.  I was born in Tennessee and got to Texas as soon as I could.  I'm a Southerner thru and thru and I expect better of Texans.

I’m a native Texan, and I agree!

I cancelled my room reservation earlier today. I’ll not be going.

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These circular discussions are entertaining, but I’m waiting to see how it will be run, which depends, I’m sure, on local rules, CDC guidance, and best practices in play at the time. I’ll likely make

"Why being required to wear a mask upsets so many, ....is such an unbearable burden....I will never understand." Agreed. It's meant to protect others, in case you're infected and don't know it. T

OK, my previous post skirted the edge or trolling and I was told by others how rude and so forth that I was. I apologize for any offense I gave. No one was talking about it (the previous post on the s

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          I normally don’t stray out of the Aircraft/ Build forum. After reading all the comments on this subject, I’d like to add my “Two Cents”. Last year was my first time attending the Nationals. I saw firsthand how much hard work went into hosting one of these. I had a great time, saw some amazing models, and met some great people. I can’t wait to go to the next one.

            With the current surge of COVID cases in Texas, I don’t see how our organization could proceed forward with this years Nationals. With that said, I understand what a huge loss, monetarily , it would be to our organization as a whole. Not to mention all the work and time that the team in San Marcos has sacrificed thus far. (Thank you to the San Marcos team)
             Make no mistake about it, this is a no win situation for ALL of us. Whether it’s hosted or not. If it is held, I feel the attendance would be far below where it would needs to be, to be beneficial for the organization. I could not imagine being on the board, having to make this decision.

                I know that it’s “Not that easy” in making a decision like this. I do however, feel strongly that we need to hear a definitive answer from the leadership, and soon. Just my “Two Cents”

 

Regards

Christopher

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The eternal optimist, I'm waiting a couple more weeks before I cancel any reservations. Personally, I blame the French. I'm sure this is all a plot by them to destroy the Texas wine industry for remarks by a Texan about the quality of French wine during WWII. They have only waited this long to put off suspicion.

Dak

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"normal" model count is between 2 & 3 thousand. If Dave Kimballs info is true  and 100  pre-registrants  bring 10 each, they might make 1000

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1 hour ago, Dakimbrell said:

The eternal optimist, I'm waiting a couple more weeks before I cancel any reservations. 

Dak

Same...wife and daughter planned a trip to Austin along with but if no live music venues and bars are open and happening then no sense in going to sit around the hotel.

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The name is Kimbrell, not Kimball. 

It is not the number of models which is important, but those who attend and pay the fees.

My information says they need at least 400. 

Dak

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Hi, today some of the East Coast states (example, New York) announced they will apply quarantine for 14 days all flights coming from Texas, this of course applies to all Nats attendees returning home. This also includes other spike states until further notice, surely other areas will follow suit.

Best regards

MikeN

 

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Sure it is a lose lose situation but if there is a small nationals they might be able to break even rather than make a profit from it.  

I hear a lot of people say why they should cancel but What if we put our heads together and see how we could make this work in a responsible way?

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27 minutes ago, MikeN said:

Hi, today some of the East Coast states (example, New York) announced they will apply quarantine for 14 days all flights coming from Texas, this of course applies to all Nats attendees returning home. This also includes other spike states until further notice, surely other areas will follow suit.

Best regards

MikeN

 

Interesting because for a few weeks Texas was quarantining anyone from Michigan due to our high numbers. 

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It’s all moot until we know what the State of Texas will be doing in a month.

A secondary aspect is if they get enough to register for the event  

My bet is they will end up in a new lock down prohibiting large gatherings because they failed to set stringent guidelines for reopening.

If the convention comes off, it will mean things like wearing masks, and limited numbers in the model and vendor’s rooms at one time. 

The banquet would need more space to achieve adequate social distancing.

Dak

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The first thing that's coming from Abbott's office is a statewide mandate to wear masks outside of your home.  That's already mandatory in Harris and Dallas Counties.  It's a virtual guarantee that it will be statewide before too much longer.

Richard

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On 6/22/2020 at 6:24 PM, John Walker said:

In my last post I edited my comments regarding the comparison of this this virus to the flu and didn't properly check my final version before sending. I'd like to clarify so that I am not misunderstood. What I was trying to say in response to David's 5-6% figure for Covid 19 fatalities as opposed to the flu was that he was comparing apples to oranges in that for the Covid 19 he was using only the confirmed number of cases for the denominator  whereas that for the flu uses an estimated number. In this last flue season (10/1/19 - 4/4/20) the CDC has estimated that there were between 39 and 56 million cases of the flu, with between 18 to 26 million medical visits leading to 410 to 740 hospitalizations and between 24 to 62 thousand deaths.  Using the largest case number and the largest death number leads to a fatality rate of 0.11%. If we were to assume that the Covid 19 virus has much the same infection rate and we therefore assume the same 56 million possible cases and then use the 120, 000 death number we would then have a fatality rate of 0.21%. That is what I was trying to convey.

Sorry for the confusion but I have been retired now for 5 1/2 years and my communication skills have obviously deteriorated. Luckily my modeling skills have improved (or at least that is what my near 72 year old eyes are telling me!). 

While you have a point that the crude calculations of case fatality rate by simply dividing the body count by the number of people who have tested positive likely overstates the case fatality rate, some of your assumptions here are wildly out of step with reality. The reason why we didn't have 56 million cases of COVID-19 in the USA is because when we saw how bad this was going to be, we took massive efforts to limit the spread, shutting things down, avoiding close contact, and wearing masks. Had we done nothing and gone about our business as we do every year during flu season, then yes, we might have seen 56 million people (or even more, considering COVID-19 is brand new, meaning no one has immunity and there is no flu shot for it) catch COVID-19 and we would be looking at a body count in the millions instead of "only" 125,000 and counting.

For example, here's a peer reviewed article that suggests that while these crude calculations may be overstating the case fatality rate, it isn't by that huge of an amount and the true case fatality rate is likely a little under 2% in Canada and the USA:  https://www.cmaj.ca/content/192/25/E666

When we are talking about body counts, 2% is a lot. 2% of 56 million is over a million. Or, to put it in different terms, imagine what a tragedy it would be if at the Nats, someone came in with a gun and shot one out of every 50 attendees in the face. In fact, an outbreak at the Nats might be even worse than that, considering both the fact that model show attendees would likely have a higher fatality rate than the general population, plus the potential for people to catch COVID-19 at the Nats and then spread it in their communities after the show, causing the death of people who haven't even heard of the IPMS. Maybe we will get lucky and there won't be an outbreak and everything will be fine, but remember, this is what's at stake. Which is why people, including those who have decided to take a pass this year, have some very strong opinions on the subject.

Be smart, stay safe, build models.

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2 hours ago, jedge3 said:

Interesting because for a few weeks Texas was quarantining anyone from Michigan due to our high numbers. 

Well, you know, all these East Coast states´ governors are Democrats, Texas´ is republican

Cheerio

MikeN

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Hi, another question is, for those attendees that will fly to San Marcos, given the current airline restrictions to carry cabin bags only below seats (no utilization of overhead bins allowed) how modellers will move their works, its of course fragile stuff, dare to document them? Will this restriction reduce entries on the tables? How about vendors?

 

Cheerio

MikeN

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How long have I been asleep?  When did Michigan become an East Coast state? I did not think tectonic plates moved that fast! 

Nick

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I'm hearing a lot of quibbling, wondering what the State of Texas is going to do.  The government is making decisions based on politics and economics as opposed to health.  But even now the Texas government is showing signs of panic.  The fact is that since opening Texas COVID cases are on the rise in a BIG way.  They are reporting record days.  Yesterday coming in at almost 3.9% higher than the peak day in April.  That's not just extra testing folks.  This virus is not leaving anytime soon, is as potent as ever, and there's no cure.  The RESPONSIBLE thing to do is cancel this event for the sake of everyone involved, from the vendors, to our families and those we come in contact with, to this organization, and last to ourselves.  All I can tell you is I'm not going this year and I don't know anyone who is.  I'm seeing a lot of people chiming in saying they're also not going.

On or off, from the outside looking in this appears to be a financial nightmare for the Texas team.  They are going to need help.  We come from different opinions and beliefs, but at the end of the day we are a community and we need to take care of each other.  

 

 

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Two points of clarification on the last two posts.

Nick, to us here in AZ anything east of the Mississippi River is "Back east"... lol

All,,,, it has be said of the financial hit the Texas team will take multiple times here. That simply isn't true. Since 2010 all finances for the National convention have run through the national office. They control all monies related to the convention throught the convention account. That eleviates any financial burdens the host would incure due to some unforseen circumstance like what is happening now.       Some minor expenses such as convention programs, t shirts, and any overage on the budget for awards would be on the local hosts but that's it. Everything else, venue rental, table rental, awards "to a certain amount" , AV rental, hotel room nights ect effect what the national office pays. What will effect the local host most is their 50/50 split of profits with the national office. It's very unlikely any profits will happen this year so all their hard work will go unrewarded.  

 

Jim

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Things may be coming to a head.

 Tarrant county (FtWorth/Arlington) has just implemented a mask policy which will expire 3 August.    That puts all of the big cities (perhaps except Lubbock where there are more cows than people) under a mask wearing policy.   
 
governor Abbott has also just cancelled elective surgeries in Harris (Houston), Bexar (San Antonio), Travis ((Austin) and Dallas counties.   He didn’t want to shutdown but 10% infection rate was his red flag.    Passed that a day or two ago

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On 6/22/2020 at 10:59 AM, Boblvnv said:

...Rio where we are holding the 2021 Nats ...

I have a Chess event at the Rio in September.  Today I received a mailing that explains their specific requirements, in detail, about wearing masks. 

The event organizers have prominently posted that players will not be allowed to bring their own boards and pieces ... they will be provided by the tournament.  I expect they will be wiped down after every match.  Social distancing will be observed in the placement of tables.

All in all, I know what to expect in September; I don't know what to expect in July.  And that is my issue.

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9 hours ago, MikeN said:

Hi, another question is, for those attendees that will fly to San Marcos, given the current airline restrictions to carry cabin bags only below seats (no utilization of overhead bins allowed) how modellers will move their works, its of course fragile stuff, dare to document them? Will this restriction reduce entries on the tables? How about vendors?

 

Cheerio

MikeN

What's this? I just looked on delta's website and didn't see this

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Again, I would like to hear something from the IPMS National leadership as well as the local Nats leadership. Why are they remaining absolutely silent? Totally irresponsible, especially our National leadership.  No, I am not going - I cancelled - so I don't really have a horse in this race, but as a member of IPMS, I want to hear from our National leadership as to what their thinking is. Frankly, shame on them for their stonewalling.

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Texas Governor Abbot passed today to local governments the responsibility to impose restrictions for outside gatherings above 100 people, previous mark was 500, so the same will soon apply to indoors; so if it at all happens, San Marcos Nats will be a severely restricted event, tough Judge Becerra is in charge; we can assume that at least 10% of locals are confirmed infected as today, but this is only the state average, much more can be expected from heavily populated areas as the corridor San Antonio-Hays-Austin, and surely all the way to Dallas- Fort Worth, another hotspot; Houston, just two hours driving time to the east, and despite its huge world class health care facilities, has been already overwhelmed, even forced to use a section of the famous Children Hospital as a sealed COVID facility, and are currently considering converting Civic and Convention centers, parking lots etc to the same purpose.All counties surrounding this big city are heavily  bug saturated as well.

Governor Abbot looks desperate, ready to drop the towel, hope heavy cavalry federal help is on the way.

Cheerio

MikeN

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Kevin....I've been as vocal a critic of past Eboards as anyone (and been fired as an RC for it!), but I think you're not giving them any credit and asking for something they really cannot provide at this time.

First of all, WHAT can they say that has not been said here? The situation is in flux, data and info is changing week to week, if not day to day, and yet it sounds like you want to have them give some sort of "definite" statement. The same goes for the San Marcos hosts, who HAVE stated that they are in constant touch with the hotel and the local county officials and do make periodic statements.

The financials that (mostly) drive the wait to cancel have been explained, so what else could they say at this time?

If you're looking for a simple "we're cancelling for the safety of our members and taking the 6 figure hit" announcement, then say so;  IF that is the "stonewalling" you're accusing them of. And while there does appear to be a "second wave" from the virus as states like Texas have opened up, how serious the consequences of that will be is very debatable at THIS time. The only real mitigating factor is that MORE IPMS members fall into the "vulnerable" category...but then the members themselves KNOW if they fall into that group, and can act accordingly. So are you looking for a "stay at home if you're over 65, obese, have diabetes, bad health, etc." announcement from the Eboard?

You can certainly debate whether they screwed the pooch by not canceling when things were closed. You can also rightly question why there was no cancellation insurance for this year. I'm betting that IF the show is held those will be just a couple of the uncomfortable questions they'll need to answer at the business meeting.

I also can't really believe you think that the Eboard and San Marcos are not working together....as in one wants to cancel but the other is hanging on tooth and nail; so I can't see the Eboard making any announcement to override any info San Marcos has already provided; or vice-versa. So I don't see any lack of "leadership" in this area either, at this point in time.

Like you, I DO expect some sort of statement from the Eboard, but NOT until about 2 weeks out from the show. That would seem to be the time when they need to get definite info out in "time" to the members, but also have waited long enough to have the latest and most up to date info to base their decisions and announcement on. My suggestion to all is to show a bit more patience with some folks in a VERY tight spot that NO Eboard has ever had to deal with!

 

Gil :smiley16:

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28 minutes ago, WasatchModeler said:

What's this? I just looked on delta's website and didn't see this

Hi, this was world news at the BBC, first of June; these guidelines were published by the  International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), an official United Nations body; the following are included:

Passengers should travel as light as possible, with small hand luggage stowed under their seat.

Newspapers & magazines should be removed.

Duty free sales should be limited

Short-haul food and drinks services should be limited or suspended, or else prepackaged.

Access to toilets should be restricted, and one should be reserved to flying crew

Face mask should be worn at all times

Passengers should check-in before getting to the airport

Contact between passenger and staff should be minimized

 

These new rules are already widely enforced in major European airlines, but in the case of US, it is wise to carefully check before travelling.

Cheerio

MikeN

 

 

 

 

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Let's think this through and think ahead. What does everyone want the E-boatd to say ? 

  1) Were waiting to see what happens.... then everyone piles on them for not canceling now to save mankind as we know it.

 2) Were cancelling. Great then what happens? everyone cancelles their room nights, the hotel sees whats up and starts asking questions as to why? which will adverse effect us in the contract. 

  AGAIN it may very well be that the Eboard is planning on cancelling, But they 1) are hoping the state closes to save the 6 figures and 2) staying silent to protect their contractual position. This being fiscally responsible to the national membership as a whole , which is far from the accusations being throw at them for being silent. 

   Give em a break and let it play out.

 

Jim

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