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Note, based on what those who attended SoonerCon told me, only about 1/3rd wore masks. I resigned from IPMS/Metro because I suggested they maintain a contact tracing list of attendees and was mocked. At least one of the members said the Covid19 was fake and only an excuse to embarrass Trump. I felt that was a callous disregard for the safety of others.

I want to have a National Convention, but the Covid19 numbers for Austin and Texas, as a whole are climbing. I also want to live to enjoy any awards and models I bring home.

My son and daughter-in-law just got back and reported that Vegas is not as open as some would think. Paris and several other casinos were closed when they were there last week. They wore masks everywhere they went.

Masks in the contest area and vendor rooms should be mandatory. And I don't see how we can judge and maintain social distancing, so masks should be required for that, too. I certainly don't want to hang with people who have such a careless disregard for the safety of others. You can't smoke or drip pizza grease on the models, and wearing a mask to reduce the spread of a deadly virus seems to be a small thing.

Dak

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I have been following this thread for a while now and have refrained from commenting until now, but it seems that the comments are getting more and more strident, spikes, hot spots, whatever. So just for giggles I went to the IPMS Nats 2020 website and read Len's update on the Covid 19 written on 5/23/20 and near the bottom is a highlight to go to the City of San Marcos Covid 19 website (actually for the whole of Hays County). It has some very interesting information there under the Covid 19 Update box. For instance there have been 52 hospitalizations for Covid since 3/4/20 (I had to go to the local newspaper, the San Marcos Daily Record (SMDR), to determine that the data shown was for the period 3/4/20 to yesterday, but that is what it is), and that as of yesterday, 6/21/20 there are now only 13 current hospitalizations (call up the Hospitalizations and put your curser arrow on the last, 6/21/20, bar). Now remember this chart is for the whole of Hays County which has a population of ~230,500 as opposed to just San Marcos with a population of ~65,000. Also, since 3/4/20 there have been a total of 5 deaths (according to the language in the SMDR "from Covid 19 related causes", whatever that means). Another interesting fact is that there have been over 300 people who tested positive for Covid 19 that have "recovered". Now, if only 39 of the recovered were from the hospital(s) (52 - 13 = 39) then the rest of the recovered did so without hospitalization.  

Now there has been a lot of coverage in the news of spikes in cases and hot spots, but these seem to be simply from additional testing (remember, the hospitals are now open for elective surgery and anyone wishing to gain admittance must be tested, so more people are being tested). The fact that there are additional cases doesn't equate with new hospitalizations, or deaths. Most of the new cases seem to be asymptomatic and these people wouldn't even have known that were positive if they hadn't been tested.

Now I am not a doctor, but as a retired mechanical engineer I can read a graph and digest data, and from what I see here I am not overly alarmed about attending the convention. Having said that, I encourage each member to go directly to the Hays County Dashboard, look at the facts from the local government (not only from the news media) weigh those facts and make their own decision regarding attendance. As for me, if the show is a go I will be there! 

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Regardless of the specific local rate of infection is, the overall death rate in the USA has been 5-6% of those catching the virus. 

Also, these local figures are based of a period of shut down, not the latest data. And they are local data    not accounting for an influx of people from other areas into a small venue versus walking around in an the open air.

And it doesn’t mean demanding the wearing masks is a bad idea  

Dak

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COVID 19 numbers as of 8 am June 22, 2020:

2,280,969 confirmed cases in USA

119,977 deaths since January (5.26%) the peak death rate was around 6.2%. 

Flu death rate is less than 1% for 2019.

We can hold the National Convention, but don't pretend this is not a deadly virus.

Dak

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David,

Actually that data is current to yesterday, 6/21/20, they are for the entire county and I have no idea whether they are for people inside, outside, or whatever. They are the data for all of the county. Masks? I didn't say anything about that, but as a matter of fact the local judge has ordered that masks are to be worn in enclosed spaces open to the public. However, that ruling expires on 7/20/20, with the option to renew for another 30 days at that time, so we shall see. Further, your statement of 5-6% of those catching the virus and dying is misleading in that you are only including in the denominator those actually confirmed as having the virus by getting ill to the point they require treatment. It does not include the millions who may be positive (IE: they have caught it) but did not get ill and didn't seek treatment. If you were to treat the flu in the same manner (IE: only count those admitted to the hospital as the denominator) the fatality results would be the same. There is a figure out today stating that for people under 70 years old (which doesn't include me! missed that by 2 years) your chances of dying from the virus is 0.04%. As for people coming from all over the place, I should hope that if you are not well you will not come, same as with the flu, common cold, or whatever. Common sense. Otherwise I don't see this as any different than going to the local grocery store and mixing with a large group of people there. And just as in the grocery store, I'll wear a mask if it makes other people feel safer. My aim here is not to deny the virus, or tell, or encourage anyone to do anything against their wishes. I am only stating that the actual facts are there for all to see first hand without the media filter (it has been stated in one post that this is not political, but to a great extent it is!). Everyone needs to evaluate the facts for themselves and make their own decisions. I have made mine, and as I said, if the show is a go, I will be there. Having said the above, personally I do not see this virus as being particularly deadly to a person of reasonable health, without underling conditions who takes reasonable hygiene precautions as you would in flu season. Your opinion may vary hence you must make up your own mind.  Those of you who believe that it is too dangerous to come then do not come, but please stop, as some have implied, labeling the rest of us as irresponsible if we disagree with your opinions. Each to his/her own. 

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Ok...I've held off this far.....but this "DEMAND to wear masks" is going too far. Yes, it IS a BAD idea!

The data and the consequences of exposure is at BEST undecipherable at this time. There IS a spike in CV-19's spread....BUT, that doesn't mean more people will actually get sick, need hospitalization, or die. In fact, that has NOT been the case despite the headlines....SO far. A month from now will tell us more......

The data on what works and what doesn't to prevent its spread is also inconclusive, with medical "experts" divided pretty evenly on do/don't wear masks, do/don't quarantine; etc, etc., depending on who's being interviewed and even what week it is.

I personally know of local medical situations where masks/ppe are NOT being worn by medical personnel...one is actually a Covid testing site! My sister, an RN, was exposed at her hospital (along with most of the staff on her non-Covid care floor) just over a week ago....and they have NOT sent her home nor asked her to quarantine herself, and she can work her normal shifts. My point? It seems the medical people themselves realize that "the cat's out of the bag" so to speak and CV-19's "spread" CANNOT be stopped in any manner. Part of this reaction also has to due with it's overall lack of lethality among 99% of the population.

The only true thing everyone seems to agree on is that IF your over 65 and IF you have any serious health complications (any age), then YOU are more vulnerable to the virus. Now, that DOES represent probably 1/3 to 1/2 of the IPMS demographic, so IPMSUSA does need to take that into account for ALL shows in the future.

IPMS is stuck in a hard place due to not taking any decisive action earlier in the situation. That said, the options going forward are pretty clear:

1) IF the state of Texas and/or city of San Marcos "close" up again, and IPMSUSA has the chance to cancel without monetary penalty: CANCEL!

2) If things stay open as they are now, and continue to open up (which seems more likely); hold the Nats, bite the bullet, and try to limit the financial loss as much as possible.

3) Put in as many common sense precautions as possible and practical, spacing tables as much as space will allow, and having signage asking everyone to be as considerate to others as possible when it comes to social distancing. This will only be partly possible due to the nature of our shows, but that doesn't mean we personally cannot adapt as much as we can.

4) If YOU want to wear a mask, fine. I will then also show you additional respect and try to maintain my distance since you are obviously more concerned than myself. Do NOT tell me I HAVE to wear one just to make you "feel safe".  If you don't think you can feel safe around others without them, STAY HOME. After all, HOW do you function in you local community where you have to deal with others not masked? You certainly cannot demand THEY all do so, and you cannot make that demand on your fellow convention attendees.

5) Judging will be tough....but there again, if YOU don't feel you can judge, with or without a mask, and feel safe, DON'T JUDGE!

6) Keep in mind this is going to be one of the SMALLEST Nats in decades....and that lack of attendees will HELP the situation by reducing the crowding we're all used to at the Nats. It will not eliminate it...but it will be easier under the circumstances.

The National convention, if held, should be a simple reflection of America at large. YOU have a choice as to whether or not to attend, just as you choose where to go in your local community, depending on where you feel is safe or not. Going anywhere at any time involves risks, and you take precautions accordingly; whether that's being sure your car has good tires so as not to hydroplane in wet conditions, or masking yourself in order to feel like you're doing all you can to maintain your health. I hope that this is the spirit in which the San Marcos hosts are finalizing their plans.

If NOT, they better start putting forth their exact demands for attendees!

Gil

 

Edited by ghodges
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In my last post I edited my comments regarding the comparison of this this virus to the flu and didn't properly check my final version before sending. I'd like to clarify so that I am not misunderstood. What I was trying to say in response to David's 5-6% figure for Covid 19 fatalities as opposed to the flu was that he was comparing apples to oranges in that for the Covid 19 he was using only the confirmed number of cases for the denominator  whereas that for the flu uses an estimated number. In this last flue season (10/1/19 - 4/4/20) the CDC has estimated that there were between 39 and 56 million cases of the flu, with between 18 to 26 million medical visits leading to 410 to 740 hospitalizations and between 24 to 62 thousand deaths.  Using the largest case number and the largest death number leads to a fatality rate of 0.11%. If we were to assume that the Covid 19 virus has much the same infection rate and we therefore assume the same 56 million possible cases and then use the 120, 000 death number we would then have a fatality rate of 0.21%. That is what I was trying to convey.

Sorry for the confusion but I have been retired now for 5 1/2 years and my communication skills have obviously deteriorated. Luckily my modeling skills have improved (or at least that is what my near 72 year old eyes are telling me!). 

Edited by John Walker
grammar

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Ok guys, you win. Covid19 is nothing to be concerned about. Masks don’t work so there is no point in even trying. 

Filter masks don’t stop you from breathing in paint fumes when you airbrush your model. Asbestos and smoking doesn’t cause cancer. Drinking alcohol doesn’t impare driving. Hard hats and safety goggles are worthless. Seatbelts and airbags have no effect. Sharks aren’t attracted to blood. Smoking at the gas pump is perfectly safe. Denial is a wonderful thing. 

So, when IPMS gets sued because they failed to follow CDC guidelines and several die, we can deal with that then. 

We’ll never be sued? We have worried about a lot less over the years. 

FYI, I have four nurses in my family and they will not go out without a mask these days.

Dak

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No David.....NO one "wins"....and NO ONE is in denial.

It's simply a matter that this is still the USA, and you cannot make DEMANDS on others in order to make YOU feel safer. If you are SO concerned, as you sincerely seem to be, then you should not attend. With your point of view, and sincere concerns, I do not see how the convention planners could EVER take enough precautions or make enough changes to make you feel completely safe, and that deosn't even include the travel "risks" you'll have to deal with coming and going.

And seriously...are you actually trying to compare the size of paint particles to VIRUSES?? THAT is truly intellectually dishonest! But then you seem so intent on making everyone else as fearful as yourself, it doesn't surprise me. You may not like the dissent in thought on the virus, but it is EVERYWHERE, in the medical community, the media, the government, as well as among we individuals. So if you cannot accept the fact that not everyone feels as you do, but MUST conform to your demands so you can feel better or safer, then as I suggested before; stay home and build models for 2021.

 

Gil

Edited by ghodges

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These circular discussions are entertaining, but I’m waiting to see how it will be run, which depends, I’m sure, on local rules, CDC guidance, and best practices in play at the time. I’ll likely make my decision about two weeks out based on knowns at that time. I feel for the organizers, have paid my registration including the banquet, and bought a trophy package. I don’t want a refund if it cancels, just hoping it helps in some small way. If it doesn’t cancel, it’s just a choice we all have to make based on what we think the level of risk is for ourselves and others. I have my own ideas,  and each person should evaluate their own risk tolerance. My profession is all about risk management, so I look at this the same way. 
 

joe

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Well, I’m already registered and have sponsored two trophy packages. Three, if you count my club sponsoring one.

Certainly, you can tell people what to do and wear. 

No shirt, no shoes, no service is seen in many businesses. You are required to wear seatbelts in most states. Hard hats on construction sites. Do you ignore the seatbelt light on the airplane? Would you take your gun into a store with a no firearms sign? I remember the outrage over stopping people from smoking in a restaurant. IT WAS THEIR RIGHT TO SMOKE ANYWHERE THEY WANTED! Or so they thought.

We now say you can’t take pictures during judging. Isn’t that my right as as a paid attendee and member of IPMS. What is a personal right is often dependent on the venue.

Why being required to wear a mask upsets so many, ....is such an unbearable burden....I will never understand. I can sympathize with the blackout wardens during the Blitz.

What will you do if the hotel or local government requires wearing masks? Will you comply or stay home in protest?

Dak

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"Why being required to wear a mask upsets so many, ....is such an unbearable burden....I will never understand."

Agreed. It's meant to protect others, in case you're infected and don't know it. To me, not wearing a mask is like purposely farting in public, only with possibly fatal consequences.

 

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11 minutes ago, Chris Bucholtz said:

"Why being required to wear a mask upsets so many, ....is such an unbearable burden....I will never understand."

Agreed. It's meant to protect others, in case you're infected and don't know it. To me, not wearing a mask is like purposely farting in public, only with possibly fatal consequences.

 

A most excellent point!

Dak

Edited by Dakimbrell

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David,

If you are wearing a mask to protect yourself as in your paint fumes example above, why do you then need others to wear a mask too? How does that further protect you? 

Honestly, at this point I'd like to just say let's agree to disagree. This is going pretty far afield and neither of us is going to convince the other of anything.

 

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Your metaphor is faulty. If you suffer lung damage from inhaling too many paint fumes, it's terrible - but it isn't contagious to others. Wearing a mask in a pandemic is less to protect you than to protect OTHER PEOPLE. If I have to explain to you why it's important to care about other people, we really don't have anything to talk about.

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15 minutes ago, John Walker said:

David,

If you are wearing a mask to protect yourself as in your paint fumes example above, why do you then need others to wear a mask too? How does that further protect you? 

Honestly, at this point I'd like to just say let's agree to disagree. This is going pretty far afield and neither of us is going to convince the other of anything.

 

In this case John, we are in a public, but closed space, and your casual cough may spread your asymptomatic Covid19 filled spittle into the air I'm breathing, or deposit it onto the table I happen to touch a few minutes after your cough. You would not just throw a snot filled tissue on the floor of the model room, would you? You would not just spit on the floor either...I hope.

I remember sitting in restaurants with cigarette smoke drifting across from the next table. Now we know second hand smoke is dangerous too.

Like I say, you guys win. The Covid19 crisis is all made up and there is no problem.

Dak

Edited by Dakimbrell

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G Hodges and his Me Only attitude is exactly why I am not going to the Nats. I'm sure he will say, Great, your choice, you won't be missed. No, probably not (although I have done rather well model wise over the years), but it is a shame when a few can essentially dictate the decisions others are forced to make by having only concern for themselves.

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Yes, I have been re-evaluating the whole thing. Depending on what happens nationally in the next month, I may go, but not enter any models to avoid excessive contact.

Dak

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Wow, this is intertaining. And I thought some of the things I posted on the forum in the 90's about OOB And Sweeps got things going, Ha! they don't hold a candle to this. 

   So cloth masks,,,, Well (most) people in public who fart do so with some kind of cloth covering so yeah enough said about cloath masks. 

   Next. surgical masks, well those bad boys were designed for sterile environments,  we don't live or interact in one of those so yeah maybe good for about 30 minutes and need to be discarded after every use or 30 minutes whichever comes first.

  Next up the N95. Now you're talking protection. Best thing going out there, but wait sham-wow users there's more. They have a pesky little thing called an exhaust port so in the unlikely chance you are infected you are now protecting NO ONE, which seems to be a big concern for some who base their whole argument on it's "not for your protection but to not harm others". Those N95 masks are good for about 3 uses then you need to sterilize them including that pesky exhaust port or ditch em. 

  People want to feel safe in a world that never has been safe. We all take chances everytime we roll out of bed.  So all of us , in a month or tomorrow morning , will roll out of bed and make that decision wheather to go or not. It's ultimately up to each of us ( insert dead horse here) What I do find amusing is the percentage of the population who feels its their duty to enforce their beliefs for the good of all upon others. Hummm when has that ever happened before? 

   Be responsible for yourself. Because that's the only person you can be responsible for. 

 Peace out brothers and sisters of Sprue

Jim

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Chris & David,

I don't disagree with either of you about protecting others, and I'm a bit insulted that you would think that I would be so cavalier about the health of others. I'm not adverse to wearing a mask. The point I was trying to put across is if a mask can keep the virus in why won't it keep it out? See what I'm saying? It can't be both ways, IE: keep the virus in but not out. As an engineer things like this bug me. It may constrain cough spittle, but if you can breath through the mask it won't stop the virus.  And Chris, my point with David's paint example wasn't to compare the virus to  non contagious paint fumes, but to illustrate that you wear a mask when painting to protect yourself from the fumes, not others. That said, what I think I'm hearing from both of you is that you wear a mask to protect others? That it doesn't protect you? At any rate, I'm not sure how this conversation has come down to masks, or not, what they do, or don't do, who they protect, or don't, but I don't really have a dog in this fight, so I'm done with the subject of masks and I'm quitting before I get accused of being Attila the Hun (I'm joking!).

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45 minutes ago, RevZoom said:

G Hodges and his Me Only attitude is exactly why I am not going to the Nats. I'm sure he will say, Great, your choice, you won't be missed. No, probably not (although I have done rather well model wise over the years), but it is a shame when a few can essentially dictate the decisions others are forced to make by having only concern for themselves.

Kevin

            Look at what you just wrote... First we can only be responsible for ourselves and make decisions thusly. If that is what you are construing as a me only attitude them I have to ask , really?. Your last sentence takes the cake because that is exactly what you are doing by advocating for the outright cancelation of the event. This whole "I can't go and feel safe, so no one else should be able to go either attitude" to me is mind boggling.  How is having the event preventing you from NOT going? how in anyway is that dictating decisions others are forced to make? If anything its the other way around , YOU WANT TO DICTATE what others can and can't do by outright cancelation of the event. 

 

Jim

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2 minutes ago, JClark said:

Kevin

            Look at what you just wrote... First we can only be responsible for ourselves and make decisions thusly. If that is what you are construing as a me only attitude them I have to ask , really?. Your last sentence takes the cake because that is exactly what you are doing by advocating for the outright cancelation of the event. This whole "I can't go and feel safe, so no one else should be able to go either attitude" to me is mind boggling.  How is having the event preventing you from NOT going? how in anyway is that dictating decisions others are forced to make? If anything its the other way around , YOU WANT TO DICTATE what others can and can't do by outright cancelation of the event. 

 

Jim

Jim,

I was sitting here thinking a response to Kevin, but you beat me to it and hit every point I would have made. 

Kevin,

People disagree, you may be correct, you may not be. You make decisions for you and I'll make decisions for me. OK?

John

 

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Repeated tests are showing masks of any type are better than no mask in REDUCING the spread. No one says anything but distance really stops it.

In a room with a couple hundred people at any given time, the temperature and humidity go up.

In the vendor’s room, we will have the added effect of people touch lots of stuff. People will get closer together than they should.

Throughout the world we daily rely on safety equipment. None of it is guaranteed to stop anything, but it gives you a fighting chance.

We also accept many things in today’s society we would not 30 years ago.

We currently worry about a child seeing a naked lady, concentration camp stuff, or a soldier peeing. But some how, asking everyone to wear a mask is a horrid violation of your civil rights.

If a family comes to the show and contracts Covid19 resulting in a long hospitalization or death, IPMS could be held responsible if we do not follow CDC guidelines.

We can’t guarantee no one will catch something. But we can take precautions. Simply requiring the wearing of masks is good faith start.

A lot can happen in 36 days. Today,Texas hit 112,944 documented cases with 2191 fatalities, according to John Hopkins  Start watching the daily spikes.

Dak

 

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Then those who don’t want to wear a mask should not attend, IMO. 

Dak

8 minutes ago, John Walker said:

Jim,

I was sitting here thinking a response to Kevin, but you beat me to it and hit every point I would have made. 

Kevin,

People disagree, you may be correct, you may not be. You make decisions for you and I'll make decisions for me. OK?

John

 

 

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David,

Having said that I was done with arguing about masks, I do have this last to say. In an earlier post I mentioned that the Hays County Judge currently has a mandatory mask policy in place that is set to expire on 7/20/20. I'm not a betting man, but if I were I'd bet that the mandatory mask order gets extended. So all of this may be academic. Hope you do come to San Marcos. I'd like to get to meet you in person if for no other reason than to show I'm not such a big jerk. 

Take care,

John

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