Jump to content

Nats 2020 & COVID-19 Update


Recommended Posts

It’s all moot until we know what the State of Texas will be doing in a month.

A secondary aspect is if they get enough to register for the event  

My bet is they will end up in a new lock down prohibiting large gatherings because they failed to set stringent guidelines for reopening.

If the convention comes off, it will mean things like wearing masks, and limited numbers in the model and vendor’s rooms at one time. 

The banquet would need more space to achieve adequate social distancing.

Dak

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The first thing that's coming from Abbott's office is a statewide mandate to wear masks outside of your home.  That's already mandatory in Harris and Dallas Counties.  It's a virtual guarantee that it will be statewide before too much longer.

Richard

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

On 6/22/2020 at 6:24 PM, John Walker said:

In my last post I edited my comments regarding the comparison of this this virus to the flu and didn't properly check my final version before sending. I'd like to clarify so that I am not misunderstood. What I was trying to say in response to David's 5-6% figure for Covid 19 fatalities as opposed to the flu was that he was comparing apples to oranges in that for the Covid 19 he was using only the confirmed number of cases for the denominator  whereas that for the flu uses an estimated number. In this last flue season (10/1/19 - 4/4/20) the CDC has estimated that there were between 39 and 56 million cases of the flu, with between 18 to 26 million medical visits leading to 410 to 740 hospitalizations and between 24 to 62 thousand deaths.  Using the largest case number and the largest death number leads to a fatality rate of 0.11%. If we were to assume that the Covid 19 virus has much the same infection rate and we therefore assume the same 56 million possible cases and then use the 120, 000 death number we would then have a fatality rate of 0.21%. That is what I was trying to convey.

Sorry for the confusion but I have been retired now for 5 1/2 years and my communication skills have obviously deteriorated. Luckily my modeling skills have improved (or at least that is what my near 72 year old eyes are telling me!). 

While you have a point that the crude calculations of case fatality rate by simply dividing the body count by the number of people who have tested positive likely overstates the case fatality rate, some of your assumptions here are wildly out of step with reality. The reason why we didn't have 56 million cases of COVID-19 in the USA is because when we saw how bad this was going to be, we took massive efforts to limit the spread, shutting things down, avoiding close contact, and wearing masks. Had we done nothing and gone about our business as we do every year during flu season, then yes, we might have seen 56 million people (or even more, considering COVID-19 is brand new, meaning no one has immunity and there is no flu shot for it) catch COVID-19 and we would be looking at a body count in the millions instead of "only" 125,000 and counting.

For example, here's a peer reviewed article that suggests that while these crude calculations may be overstating the case fatality rate, it isn't by that huge of an amount and the true case fatality rate is likely a little under 2% in Canada and the USA:  https://www.cmaj.ca/content/192/25/E666

When we are talking about body counts, 2% is a lot. 2% of 56 million is over a million. Or, to put it in different terms, imagine what a tragedy it would be if at the Nats, someone came in with a gun and shot one out of every 50 attendees in the face. In fact, an outbreak at the Nats might be even worse than that, considering both the fact that model show attendees would likely have a higher fatality rate than the general population, plus the potential for people to catch COVID-19 at the Nats and then spread it in their communities after the show, causing the death of people who haven't even heard of the IPMS. Maybe we will get lucky and there won't be an outbreak and everything will be fine, but remember, this is what's at stake. Which is why people, including those who have decided to take a pass this year, have some very strong opinions on the subject.

Be smart, stay safe, build models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, jedge3 said:

Interesting because for a few weeks Texas was quarantining anyone from Michigan due to our high numbers. 

Well, you know, all these East Coast states´ governors are Democrats, Texas´ is republican

Cheerio

MikeN

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi, another question is, for those attendees that will fly to San Marcos, given the current airline restrictions to carry cabin bags only below seats (no utilization of overhead bins allowed) how modellers will move their works, its of course fragile stuff, dare to document them? Will this restriction reduce entries on the tables? How about vendors?

 

Cheerio

MikeN

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm hearing a lot of quibbling, wondering what the State of Texas is going to do.  The government is making decisions based on politics and economics as opposed to health.  But even now the Texas government is showing signs of panic.  The fact is that since opening Texas COVID cases are on the rise in a BIG way.  They are reporting record days.  Yesterday coming in at almost 3.9% higher than the peak day in April.  That's not just extra testing folks.  This virus is not leaving anytime soon, is as potent as ever, and there's no cure.  The RESPONSIBLE thing to do is cancel this event for the sake of everyone involved, from the vendors, to our families and those we come in contact with, to this organization, and last to ourselves.  All I can tell you is I'm not going this year and I don't know anyone who is.  I'm seeing a lot of people chiming in saying they're also not going.

On or off, from the outside looking in this appears to be a financial nightmare for the Texas team.  They are going to need help.  We come from different opinions and beliefs, but at the end of the day we are a community and we need to take care of each other.  

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Things may be coming to a head.

 Tarrant county (FtWorth/Arlington) has just implemented a mask policy which will expire 3 August.    That puts all of the big cities (perhaps except Lubbock where there are more cows than people) under a mask wearing policy.   
 
governor Abbott has also just cancelled elective surgeries in Harris (Houston), Bexar (San Antonio), Travis ((Austin) and Dallas counties.   He didn’t want to shutdown but 10% infection rate was his red flag.    Passed that a day or two ago

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/22/2020 at 10:59 AM, Boblvnv said:

...Rio where we are holding the 2021 Nats ...

I have a Chess event at the Rio in September.  Today I received a mailing that explains their specific requirements, in detail, about wearing masks. 

The event organizers have prominently posted that players will not be allowed to bring their own boards and pieces ... they will be provided by the tournament.  I expect they will be wiped down after every match.  Social distancing will be observed in the placement of tables.

All in all, I know what to expect in September; I don't know what to expect in July.  And that is my issue.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, MikeN said:

Hi, another question is, for those attendees that will fly to San Marcos, given the current airline restrictions to carry cabin bags only below seats (no utilization of overhead bins allowed) how modellers will move their works, its of course fragile stuff, dare to document them? Will this restriction reduce entries on the tables? How about vendors?

 

Cheerio

MikeN

What's this? I just looked on delta's website and didn't see this

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again, I would like to hear something from the IPMS National leadership as well as the local Nats leadership. Why are they remaining absolutely silent? Totally irresponsible, especially our National leadership.  No, I am not going - I cancelled - so I don't really have a horse in this race, but as a member of IPMS, I want to hear from our National leadership as to what their thinking is. Frankly, shame on them for their stonewalling.

Edited by RevZoom
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Texas Governor Abbot passed today to local governments the responsibility to impose restrictions for outside gatherings above 100 people, previous mark was 500, so the same will soon apply to indoors; so if it at all happens, San Marcos Nats will be a severely restricted event, tough Judge Becerra is in charge; we can assume that at least 10% of locals are confirmed infected as today, but this is only the state average, much more can be expected from heavily populated areas as the corridor San Antonio-Hays-Austin, and surely all the way to Dallas- Fort Worth, another hotspot; Houston, just two hours driving time to the east, and despite its huge world class health care facilities, has been already overwhelmed, even forced to use a section of the famous Children Hospital as a sealed COVID facility, and are currently considering converting Civic and Convention centers, parking lots etc to the same purpose.All counties surrounding this big city are heavily  bug saturated as well.

Governor Abbot looks desperate, ready to drop the towel, hope heavy cavalry federal help is on the way.

Cheerio

MikeN

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kevin....I've been as vocal a critic of past Eboards as anyone (and been fired as an RC for it!), but I think you're not giving them any credit and asking for something they really cannot provide at this time.

First of all, WHAT can they say that has not been said here? The situation is in flux, data and info is changing week to week, if not day to day, and yet it sounds like you want to have them give some sort of "definite" statement. The same goes for the San Marcos hosts, who HAVE stated that they are in constant touch with the hotel and the local county officials and do make periodic statements.

The financials that (mostly) drive the wait to cancel have been explained, so what else could they say at this time?

If you're looking for a simple "we're cancelling for the safety of our members and taking the 6 figure hit" announcement, then say so;  IF that is the "stonewalling" you're accusing them of. And while there does appear to be a "second wave" from the virus as states like Texas have opened up, how serious the consequences of that will be is very debatable at THIS time. The only real mitigating factor is that MORE IPMS members fall into the "vulnerable" category...but then the members themselves KNOW if they fall into that group, and can act accordingly. So are you looking for a "stay at home if you're over 65, obese, have diabetes, bad health, etc." announcement from the Eboard?

You can certainly debate whether they screwed the pooch by not canceling when things were closed. You can also rightly question why there was no cancellation insurance for this year. I'm betting that IF the show is held those will be just a couple of the uncomfortable questions they'll need to answer at the business meeting.

I also can't really believe you think that the Eboard and San Marcos are not working together....as in one wants to cancel but the other is hanging on tooth and nail; so I can't see the Eboard making any announcement to override any info San Marcos has already provided; or vice-versa. So I don't see any lack of "leadership" in this area either, at this point in time.

Like you, I DO expect some sort of statement from the Eboard, but NOT until about 2 weeks out from the show. That would seem to be the time when they need to get definite info out in "time" to the members, but also have waited long enough to have the latest and most up to date info to base their decisions and announcement on. My suggestion to all is to show a bit more patience with some folks in a VERY tight spot that NO Eboard has ever had to deal with!

 

Gil :smiley16:

Edited by ghodges
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, WasatchModeler said:

What's this? I just looked on delta's website and didn't see this

Hi, this was world news at the BBC, first of June; these guidelines were published by the  International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), an official United Nations body; the following are included:

Passengers should travel as light as possible, with small hand luggage stowed under their seat.

Newspapers & magazines should be removed.

Duty free sales should be limited

Short-haul food and drinks services should be limited or suspended, or else prepackaged.

Access to toilets should be restricted, and one should be reserved to flying crew

Face mask should be worn at all times

Passengers should check-in before getting to the airport

Contact between passenger and staff should be minimized

 

These new rules are already widely enforced in major European airlines, but in the case of US, it is wise to carefully check before travelling.

Cheerio

MikeN

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I suspect they're reviewing the options they have now and working with the venue and vendors to sort it all out.  I'm sure the room cancelations are happening already and the hotel isn't in the dark.  I would even imagine lawyers are involved given the money at stake.  I suspect a response will be coming shortly.  The dominoes seem to be falling at the government level also.  People just want to know what's going on so they can go about their lives.  Silence is tough to deal with, especially for those planning on going still.  For me, I want to see how it shakes out and an explanation from leadership what help, if any, is needed.  

Dave

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have always said keep people informed. Even when you know nothing and have no information, tell people that. It really does calm things.  Silence begets rumors. Rumors create fear.

If the various parties are waiting for Texas or the local community to make decisions, then say so.

They could also put a clear plan out in case it all does work out for us. Let everyone know what to expect as an attendee or vendor. Masks, tracking list, limited numbers in the  model room, maybe taking temps, etc.

Silence only breeds uncertainty. Uncertainty destroys confidence.

Dak

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Dakimbrell said:

I have always said keep people informed. Even when you know nothing and have no information, tell people that. It really does calm things.  Silence begets rumors. Rumors create fear.

If the various parties are waiting for Texas or the local community to make decisions, then say so.

They could also put a clear plan out in case it all does work out for us. Let everyone know what to expect as an attendee or vendor. Masks, tracking list, limited numbers in the  model room, maybe taking temps, etc.

Silence only breeds uncertainty. Uncertainty destroys confidence.

Dak

This is 100% true. No information leads people to speculate. I still have all my plans to go, I can wait a little longer but at some point I need to decide if I am going.  It is less than a month away.  As Dak said, tell us the thought process, tell us where things stand even if there isn't an update, tell us if it does happen what would be the measures in place, give some sort of update. Our local show cancelled already for October and Michigan was in the green the other day but on the way back up.  I also agree with the statement someone else made, why wasn't there show insurance?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

David, DWaples, Ed, et al have all posted valid comments and concerns.  It can be argued that we shouldn't have opened the state as early as we did, that we shouldn't have done this, shouldn't have done that, etc.  All we're doing right now due to insufficient and/or inaccurate information is playing the would've, should've, could've game, which is a game where no one wins.  Currently the only one who has the most accurate information is the virus itself and its not telling us what its plans are.  Bottom line is that we need to have a little patience.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Covid19 virus is particularly insidious because the symptoms come on slow and doesn’t effect everyone the same way. This has bred complacency in both political and non-political areas.

Dak

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, JClark said:

Let's think this through and think ahead. What does everyone want the E-boatd to say ? 

  1) Were waiting to see what happens.... then everyone piles on them for not canceling now to save mankind as we know it.

 2) Were cancelling. Great then what happens? everyone cancelles their room nights, the hotel sees whats up and starts asking questions as to why? which will adverse effect us in the contract. 

  AGAIN it may very well be that the Eboard is planning on cancelling, But they 1) are hoping the state closes to save the 6 figures and 2) staying silent to protect their contractual position. This being fiscally responsible to the national membership as a whole , which is far from the accusations being throw at them for being silent. 

   Give em a break and let it play out.

 

Jim

I agree with Jim.  IF the force majeure clause contract between IPMS and the venue does not include broad language allowing IPMS to cancel without penalty in the event that circumstances APPEAR that attendance will be way down, the IPMS leadership is obligated to let this ride in hopes that a government agency imposes a restriction that gives them an escape without penalty.

IF there is a broad-language force major clause that allows them to cancel if it appears that attendance will be way down, I don't see how they could publicly say "don't come" - as this statement by the leadership could be seen by a legal eagle as CAUSING the attendance to go down, thus nullifying the majeure protections. 

However, if they remain silent, and simply present to the venue the figures that IPMS has regarding cancellations, and that the venue sees itself in cancellations, the two entities may agree to allow cancellation without penalty.   That is the reason that I cancelled my reservation as soon as I decided it was too risky for me to be there.  

In the event none of these things play out, there is always the option for the leadership to cancel a few days out and take the financial hit.  Will this inconvenience some members, yes, some even financially, but the leadership has an obligation to look after the interests of the organization as a whole, even if they know doing so will present hardships for some members individually.

Selling books, people handle the books, we handle the books, the next person handles the books, plenty of chances for passing the virus around. While we do take precautions, there is always an element of risk, and that we try to minimize. Tight quarters for vendors, and the attitude of some vendors (and buyers) of, "I'm not taking any precautions because I don't want to," means that no longer can I simply refuse to serve those that I feel are putting me at risk, the close quarters means just being there is risky to me.  

Back in March Denise and I drove from Memphis to Michigan for a show, and literally the day we got into town, the show was cancelled (Wednesday before a Saturday event).  Was this inconvenient for us - you bet.  Was it the right call on the part of the show leadership?  Absolutely, and the frustration for the inconvenience to us was over in ten minutes, but the feeling for them making the right call remains - and we'll go back.

Regards,

David Doyle

www.DavidDoyleBooks.com

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Either way, it is obvious that substantial financial loss is inevitable; taking this as the worst case scenario, why don´t we collaborate and propose ways to help IPMS out of the reds? I propose a National Benefit Model Swap, all proceedings for IPMS, I find no problem in giving away a few boxes, surely many will be ready to help, and some others will find peace of mind finding that obscure piece of plastic in their dreams. Any other ideas?

Cheerio

MikeN

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MikeN said:

Either way, it is obvious that substantial financial loss is inevitable; taking this as the worst case scenario, why don´t we collaborate and propose ways to help IPMS out of the reds? I propose a National Benefit Model Swap, all proceedings for IPMS, I find no problem in giving away a few boxes, surely many will be ready to help, and some others will find peace of mind finding that obscure piece of plastic in their dreams. Any other ideas?

Cheerio

MikeN

👍

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, ghodges said:

Kevin...First of all, WHAT can they say that has not been said here? The situation is in flux, data and info is changing week to week, if not day to day, and yet it sounds like you want to have them give some sort of "definite" statement. The same goes for the San Marcos hosts, who HAVE stated that they are in constant touch with the hotel and the local county officials and do make periodic statements.

 

Gil,

What I would like to see is what the current thinking is and what options are open to us from their standpoint. That is, what are the markers they are looking for to determine if it is a go or not. How many do they realistically expect to attend. How would they practise social distancing and the issue of masks -what is their thinking on this. If they cancel, how much does IPMS look to lose financially. How could the membership help out - sort of a self generated gofundme - to offset that. If they don't cancel how much do they stand to lose by people not showing up. How does the vendor situation stand. How about the banquet. What are their thoughts on judging. Is there any way to conduct an online nationals.

I could go on, but basically (I know, Judge Judy hates that word) what are their thoughts on this. At least then we would have something to consider from the leadership standpoint. Staying silent when so many are frustrated and wondering is what leads to even more frustration and wondering. Tell me - us - where we stand right now and I can deal with that. I realize that may change, but it gives a frame of reference.

I am not trying to bust anyone's cojones.  I like many others just want some acknowledgement that we are all in this together and how can we help, other than by standing around silent with our thumbs...well, you get the idea.

When I managed Tech Support for Blue Cross, the one thing I drilled into my staff was communicate, communicate, communicate. Soemone has a down PC - make sure you are kiiping them informed as to what is happening. The other thing I drilled into them was give the client options. You may not solve their problem right away but at least the client will know they are not forgotten.

That's what I'm looking for, since you asked.

Kevin

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'll speak to the judging issue.    The NCC is working on a plan to have the teams of three doing independent evaluation and each member produce a ranked list of their top 5 or 6 entries in a category.  The lists will then be merged in a form of rank choice voting to determine final placement.   Detais are still being worked out.   There were other options; popular vote and single person judging were discussed and discarded.

As of last week,  all of the NCC judges have indicated that they are planning on attending.   However  Eileen Persichetti has said she will not be going .  The efforts to crunch the numbers to produce the results in time for the awards may be difficult.

I suggested that Mark Persichetti say what our plan B was going to be.  We'll catch flak one way or another.   Perhaps better before than during & after.

Ed Grune -- NCC Ship Judge

Edited by EFGrune
Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...