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Nats 2020 & COVID-19 Update


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I really feel sorry for the guys from Texas.  Very much stuck between the cliff and the deep blue sea!  As I mentioned, I have canceled already because I am one of those who is unlikely to leave the hospital if I catch this bug.  Having said that, someone here said they had registered already but won't be going.  They decided to leave the registration fee as is, as a small effort to help out.  I was wondering if this really helps the group or is too little, too late?  If it helps then I would be all for doing the same and encouraging others to do so also. 

Edited by PeteJ
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6 hours ago, PeteJ said:

 
...  Having said that, someone here said they had registered already but won't be going.  They decided to leave the registration fee as is, as a small effort to help out.  I was wondering if this really helps the group or is too little, too late?  If it helps then I would be all for doing the same and encouraging others to do so also. 

You would probably help them better by buying one or more trophy packs.   Decals, pins, and typical swag bag items are cheap.   The cost of putting these sorts of things on are often in the awards.  They are obligated to provide upwards of 180 trophy sets, all awarded or not.    
 

Heck, we found un-awarded 2000 Dallas convention plaques when we cleaned out MAL Hobby last year

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I've updated my investigation on current and projected Wuhan restrictions in San Marcos.  They remain, as I read them, as a limit of 50% capacity on nearly all businesses and events.  I asked earlier how the Nats plans to operate within the ES with this restriction.  I still don't know.

I am scheduled for another major hobby event in September.  This event has published, in a prominent way, exactly the precautions and requirements that will be enforced for the attendees.

My current thinking is that I will not attend.  Based upon the lack of information on what I may expect.  I'm willing to make a personal risk decision if I have substantial information on the restrictions and precautions I can expect.  I'm not willing to take a personal risk without that information.

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Friends, let me jump in right here and remind us all of this very important rule regarding the use of these forums:

  • Prohibited behavior:

    • Trolling. Do not annoy or provoke other members or forum staff to "stir the pot" or encourage discord (see Wil Wheaton rule above). Do not "flame" or incite other members to perpetuate an argument. Personal attacks or name-calling are not permitted and will get you kicked from the forums quicker than any other action.

Thus far this thread has been relatively civil with the exception of a couple of posts that skirt the line of violating the above listed rule.

Keep it civil.

Let's look at this thread as a way to share our ideas (peacefully and respectfully) with our fellow modelers, particularly those making decisions related to The Nats, in an effort to help them make the best choice possible.

Thanks for your support.

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The number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise in Texas, and the governor has not indicated any willingness to deal with the situation as long as there are hospital beds available. “Open for business as usual” seems to be the official policy. Hays County (San Marcos) is one of the hot spots. I’d have thought we’d have heard more from the host chapter and national officers at this point as to how they plan to deal with a worsening situation. As things stand now, I will not be attending and will be cancelling my hotel reservation.

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7 hours ago, SkyKing said:

The number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise in Texas, and the governor has not indicated any willingness to deal with the situation as long as there are hospital beds available. “Open for business as usual” seems to be the official policy. Hays County (San Marcos) is one of the hot spots. I’d have thought we’d have heard more from the host chapter and national officers at this point as to how they plan to deal with a worsening situation. As things stand now, I will not be attending and will be cancelling my hotel reservation.

I agree. They need to probably consider cancelling. I'm booked to go...but more and more on the fence about it the more I hear about the cases going up in the general area (Austin/San. Marcos/Hays County). I want to be there as much as the next guy but I think it is going to be a lack luster Nats at this point anyway.

The silence from the organizers is becoming deafening.

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Why not give the organizers the benefit of the doubt? They have been living with this nightmare since the beginning of the year. They realize the financial problems /health problems, etc. that this thing poses.

Lots of moving parts here, contracts, etc. I am sure they are trying to come to a decision that will hurt the society the least. The organizers may be better off not saying anything right now until the organizers and hotel do their due diligence coping with this mess, I am sure there are legal matters involved. .

What difference does it make if the Nationals are cancelled  tomorrow or a month from now? I rather doubt that anyone here has his/her stuff packed up and in the car waiting to head to San Marcos. Is it going to affect your building schedule? If it is held, then you  are still building to a completion date that you planned for.  If your model is finished and you can't go there will be another Nationals, just keep the dust and cats away from your model. There are some here ( and on  other sites) who have been advocating a cancellation since February, with some not so subtle "virtue signaling"  thrown in. Others are anxious to get the show on the road. Fine, to each his/her own. Eventually we will know but we do not know right now,  but other than posting and talking  whether it is a go / no-go it is not going to affect your life to any great degree.

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8 hours ago, patd said:

Why not give the organizers the benefit of the doubt? They have been living with this nightmare since the beginning of the year. They realize the financial problems /health problems, etc. that this thing poses.

Lots of moving parts here, contracts, etc. I am sure they are trying to come to a decision that will hurt the society the least. The organizers may be better off not saying anything right now until the organizers and hotel do their due diligence coping with this mess, I am sure there are legal matters involved. .

What difference does it make if the Nationals are cancelled  tomorrow or a month from now? I rather doubt that anyone here has his/her stuff packed up and in the car waiting to head to San Marcos. Is it going to affect your building schedule? If it is held, then you  are still building to a completion date that you planned for.  If your model is finished and you can't go there will be another Nationals, just keep the dust and cats away from your model. There are some here ( and on  other sites) who have been advocating a cancellation since February, with some not so subtle "virtue signaling"  thrown in. Others are anxious to get the show on the road. Fine, to each his/her own. Eventually we will know but we do not know right now,  but other than posting and talking  whether it is a go / no-go it is not going to affect your life to any great degree.

Well said Pat.

Regards

Bill

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14 hours ago, patd said:

What difference does it make if the Nationals are cancelled  tomorrow or a month from now? I rather doubt that anyone here has his/her stuff packed up and in the car waiting to head to San Marcos. 

 

I, for one, have held off making the final portion for our group entry display. The rest is built and we designed it to be reusable for the foreseeable future.

An item that is around $200 that may or may not be used this year (the durability of these things in storage is a potential issue) is a factor in our chapter's planning.

There are two local chapters here, and one has already decided against sending that group's display entry as their chapter leadership has opted out of attendance for health reasons (the doctor said NO!) but it will hold for a year. I just might enter my contribution and see how it fares.

For others, there is the consideration of time off work, travel arrangements (especially airfare) and other cost factors that might not be so easy to recoup at the last minute. Last-minute cancellation fees are not always consumer freindly.

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20 hours ago, jcorley said:

For others, there is the consideration of time off work, travel arrangements (especially airfare) and other cost factors that might not be so easy to recoup at the last minute. Last-minute cancellation fees are not always consumer freindly.

👆 This ...this is why we want to know if it is go or no go and when a  "💩 of get off the pot " call will be made.

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OK, my previous post skirted the edge or trolling and I was told by others how rude and so forth that I was. I apologize for any offense I gave. No one was talking about it (the previous post on the subject was like 3 weeks prior) and I figured it would get some discussion going. It did. I was just a little too - as my fellow Phoenix chapter members remind me often - a little too curmudgeonly.

We have to be realistic about whether or not the show can go on. As was just pointed out, work schedules, travel arrangements and not incurring a cancellation penalty at hotels and the like all come into play and require some advance notice. And over and above us regular attendees, what about the vendors? They really need some advance time to know if things are a go or not.

Beyond schedules and such, there is the matter of safety precautions if the show does still happen. Will the Nats organizers REQUIRE everyone to wear a mask? No exceptions. This is not a political issue, it is a health issue.  And how will social distancing be carried out in the vendor room (how far apart will the vendor tables be and how many people allowed in to the vendor space at any one time) and in the model room? Nats are crowded. Model tables are crowded. How do you avoid that. And then the judging - and yes, I am a judge of many years standing. Judges crowd together to examine the models. How is that to be done SAFELY? And what about the banquet? Can you even consider a banquet when the proper spacing likely cannot be arranged (and if it can, I would like to hear that from the chapter organizers) - and how do you social distance when the awards are announced and everyone crowds into the banquet room. I don't see how this can all be done.

What I found so upsetting to me - and I still do -  is the silence from those in charge of this Nats. Considering everything involved, that is simply unacceptable - maybe I'm the only one that finds the silence so, or maybe I've just missed some responses from them, but I would think others among our fraternity would also find what I perceive as silence to be unacceptable.

I truly do not see how this Nats can be put on this year. And that's not rude or uncaring or anything like that. Yes, going is everyone's individual choice, but we should not have to be in a position of deciding which is a greater priority - our possible health or our hobby. Leaders sometimes have to make decisions which are not popular among  a few or even many, but they have to make those decisions which are in the best interest of everyone. And before anyone pops up with an anecdotal story about how they attended this or that meeting or contest and everyone is fine, etc., just look at the numbers. Texas is a hotspot. As is my own state of Arizona. This virus is real. It is not going to magically fade away overnight. It is not a media opportunity. It is not the flu. It is real. And for those of us in the higher risk categories, it can be deadly. But, of course, we still want to go (we modelers are really just big little kids and we want what we want and we do not want to be disappointed and so many of us will go despite the risks) and that is why those in charge, whether at the national or local level need to make a realistic appraisal and acknowledge that this is a lost year - for the sake of everyone's health and peace of mind.

Would that be a disappointing decision? Of course. We've had 3 Nats in Phoenix and I was very much involved with the first 2. I know the work and effort that goes into a Nats by those who put it on. I know how disappointing and possibly costly cancelling a Nats would be. But I see how much more costly in human terms it could be if it does go on and people get sick and possibly die. That is something no one could then wash their hands of.

That is why I plead with the leadership to do what is necessary. For all our sakes.

Kevin Wenker

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1 hour ago, RevZoom said:

OK, my previous post skirted the edge or trolling and I was told by others how rude and so forth that I was. I apologize for any offense I gave. No one was talking about it (the previous post on the subject was like 3 weeks prior) and I figured it would get some discussion going. It did. I was just a little too - as my fellow Phoenix chapter members remind me often - a little too curmudgeonly.

We have to be realistic about whether or not the show can go on. As was just pointed out, work schedules, travel arrangements and not incurring a cancellation penalty at hotels and the like all come into play and require some advance notice. And over and above us regular attendees, what about the vendors? They really need some advance time to know if things are a go or not.

Beyond schedules and such, there is the matter of safety precautions if the show does still happen. Will the Nats organizers REQUIRE everyone to wear a mask? No exceptions. This is not a political issue, it is a health issue.  And how will social distancing be carried out in the vendor room (how far apart will the vendor tables be and how many people allowed in to the vendor space at any one time) and in the model room? Nats are crowded. Model tables are crowded. How do you avoid that. And then the judging - and yes, I am a judge of many years standing. Judges crowd together to examine the models. How is that to be done SAFELY? And what about the banquet? Can you even consider a banquet when the proper spacing likely cannot be arranged (and if it can, I would like to hear that from the chapter organizers) - and how do you social distance when the awards are announced and everyone crowds into the banquet room. I don't see how this can all be done.

What I found so upsetting to me - and I still do -  is the silence from those in charge of this Nats. Considering everything involved, that is simply unacceptable - maybe I'm the only one that finds the silence so, or maybe I've just missed some responses from them, but I would think others among our fraternity would also find what I perceive as silence to be unacceptable.

I truly do not see how this Nats can be put on this year. And that's not rude or uncaring or anything like that. Yes, going is everyone's individual choice, but we should not have to be in a position of deciding which is a greater priority - our possible health or our hobby. Leaders sometimes have to make decisions which are not popular among  a few or even many, but they have to make those decisions which are in the best interest of everyone. And before anyone pops up with an anecdotal story about how they attended this or that meeting or contest and everyone is fine, etc., just look at the numbers. Texas is a hotspot. As is my own state of Arizona. This virus is real. It is not going to magically fade away overnight. It is not a media opportunity. It is not the flu. It is real. And for those of us in the higher risk categories, it can be deadly. But, of course, we still want to go (we modelers are really just big little kids and we want what we want and we do not want to be disappointed and so many of us will go despite the risks) and that is why those in charge, whether at the national or local level need to make a realistic appraisal and acknowledge that this is a lost year - for the sake of everyone's health and peace of mind.

Would that be a disappointing decision? Of course. We've had 3 Nats in Phoenix and I was very much involved with the first 2. I know the work and effort that goes into a Nats by those who put it on. I know how disappointing and possibly costly cancelling a Nats would be. But I see how much more costly in human terms it could be if it does go on and people get sick and possibly die. That is something no one could then wash their hands of.

That is why I plead with the leadership to do what is necessary. For all our sakes.

Kevin Wenker

Hi Kevin:

I think beyond the obvious money and effort, there is a complete lack of faith in the medical reporting and government support. In Ohio (where most things are open), more cases are getting reported BUT that is concurrent with much more testing. And, the problem is most cases are not symptomatic enough to make this any worse than a cold. One of our friends missed one day of work feeling ill. Got tested a week later and found out she had had it. We had a women at church with an extremely compromised immune system. She was in intensive care. Seems to effect people differently. 

At this point, football is going ahead- college, high school and pro with testing. But they canceled the Cleveland Airshow which has a smaller daily attendance that OSU football. The local grape festival in late Sept is also canceled but the high school schedule remains. I assume this is all driven by dollars but the lack of consistency is remarkable and I can't see how anyone can make an informed intelligent decision when the info is so contradictory.

I will say that IPMS is a risk group. Not a young bunch. 

I would also like to see a vendor update. I can't see how Zoukei Mura or Eduard could possibly attend considering the travel

Time will tell

Dave

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Dave,

More testing is not causing more Covid cases. I know the powers that be in government would have us think so, but that is not the scientific realty. Testing is up 17% in Arizona. Covid cases are up 138%. Infection rate among those tested is 7.8% - that is a jump from 5.3%. That is most definitely not the result of more testing. This is a result of our opening up in Arizona way too early and few people taking precautions once we did. Florida the same. Texas is very, very similar. And the San Marcos area is a hotspot.

As to the effects of Covid: some people have very mild symtoms. A Pastor friend of mine in his late 40s in good health was mildly affected. Others - us older ones or those with health issues are very seriously affected. The Assistant Pastor of this friend of mine - in his early 40s ended up in ICU for 9 days. A lot depends on the viral load a person receives. And that is a direct result of social distancing or not and wearing a mask or not.

I truly wonder if we will have football or not. Hope so as I would hate to think of the time I would have wasted on drafting my fantasy teams. In all seriousness, tough, I tend to doubt there will be football - college or pro.

And you are right about so much being driven by dollars. 4 casinos repoened in Arizona - and have now had to shut their doors for at least a couple weeks. Vegas is shutting down again. With this virus there is no such thing as a free lunch.

And as you point out, considering the age group of IPMS, that is why I am so concerned about the Nats.

Kevin

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Just in the interest of factual information, Vegas has not shut down again. Arizona’s situation is a bit different, and authorities here are watching it carefully, but the large Vegas casinos that opened are still open, though some additional restrictions are being added. 
 

joe

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Thanks for correction about Vegas. I was under the misunderstanding the bigger casinos had to close again. Additional restrictions only

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Hi All,

Las Vegas is entering Phase 3 of our reopening.  Most casinos and resort are open again and activity on The Strip is about 50% of normal.  I was down there on Saturday and was pleased to see all the cars and people about again.  

I spoke to The Rio where we are holding the 2021 Nats and they too are open and don't expect any problems moving forward.  In fact they reported that they are overwhelmed with new and re-bookings for 2021 and 2022.  They are very excited to be hosting IPMS USA in 21' and everything is moving forward on schedule.  Bob

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Note, based on what those who attended SoonerCon told me, only about 1/3rd wore masks. I resigned from IPMS/Metro because I suggested they maintain a contact tracing list of attendees and was mocked. At least one of the members said the Covid19 was fake and only an excuse to embarrass Trump. I felt that was a callous disregard for the safety of others.

I want to have a National Convention, but the Covid19 numbers for Austin and Texas, as a whole are climbing. I also want to live to enjoy any awards and models I bring home.

My son and daughter-in-law just got back and reported that Vegas is not as open as some would think. Paris and several other casinos were closed when they were there last week. They wore masks everywhere they went.

Masks in the contest area and vendor rooms should be mandatory. And I don't see how we can judge and maintain social distancing, so masks should be required for that, too. I certainly don't want to hang with people who have such a careless disregard for the safety of others. You can't smoke or drip pizza grease on the models, and wearing a mask to reduce the spread of a deadly virus seems to be a small thing.

Dak

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I have been following this thread for a while now and have refrained from commenting until now, but it seems that the comments are getting more and more strident, spikes, hot spots, whatever. So just for giggles I went to the IPMS Nats 2020 website and read Len's update on the Covid 19 written on 5/23/20 and near the bottom is a highlight to go to the City of San Marcos Covid 19 website (actually for the whole of Hays County). It has some very interesting information there under the Covid 19 Update box. For instance there have been 52 hospitalizations for Covid since 3/4/20 (I had to go to the local newspaper, the San Marcos Daily Record (SMDR), to determine that the data shown was for the period 3/4/20 to yesterday, but that is what it is), and that as of yesterday, 6/21/20 there are now only 13 current hospitalizations (call up the Hospitalizations and put your curser arrow on the last, 6/21/20, bar). Now remember this chart is for the whole of Hays County which has a population of ~230,500 as opposed to just San Marcos with a population of ~65,000. Also, since 3/4/20 there have been a total of 5 deaths (according to the language in the SMDR "from Covid 19 related causes", whatever that means). Another interesting fact is that there have been over 300 people who tested positive for Covid 19 that have "recovered". Now, if only 39 of the recovered were from the hospital(s) (52 - 13 = 39) then the rest of the recovered did so without hospitalization.  

Now there has been a lot of coverage in the news of spikes in cases and hot spots, but these seem to be simply from additional testing (remember, the hospitals are now open for elective surgery and anyone wishing to gain admittance must be tested, so more people are being tested). The fact that there are additional cases doesn't equate with new hospitalizations, or deaths. Most of the new cases seem to be asymptomatic and these people wouldn't even have known that were positive if they hadn't been tested.

Now I am not a doctor, but as a retired mechanical engineer I can read a graph and digest data, and from what I see here I am not overly alarmed about attending the convention. Having said that, I encourage each member to go directly to the Hays County Dashboard, look at the facts from the local government (not only from the news media) weigh those facts and make their own decision regarding attendance. As for me, if the show is a go I will be there! 

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Regardless of the specific local rate of infection is, the overall death rate in the USA has been 5-6% of those catching the virus. 

Also, these local figures are based of a period of shut down, not the latest data. And they are local data    not accounting for an influx of people from other areas into a small venue versus walking around in an the open air.

And it doesn’t mean demanding the wearing masks is a bad idea  

Dak

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COVID 19 numbers as of 8 am June 22, 2020:

2,280,969 confirmed cases in USA

119,977 deaths since January (5.26%) the peak death rate was around 6.2%. 

Flu death rate is less than 1% for 2019.

We can hold the National Convention, but don't pretend this is not a deadly virus.

Dak

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David,

Actually that data is current to yesterday, 6/21/20, they are for the entire county and I have no idea whether they are for people inside, outside, or whatever. They are the data for all of the county. Masks? I didn't say anything about that, but as a matter of fact the local judge has ordered that masks are to be worn in enclosed spaces open to the public. However, that ruling expires on 7/20/20, with the option to renew for another 30 days at that time, so we shall see. Further, your statement of 5-6% of those catching the virus and dying is misleading in that you are only including in the denominator those actually confirmed as having the virus by getting ill to the point they require treatment. It does not include the millions who may be positive (IE: they have caught it) but did not get ill and didn't seek treatment. If you were to treat the flu in the same manner (IE: only count those admitted to the hospital as the denominator) the fatality results would be the same. There is a figure out today stating that for people under 70 years old (which doesn't include me! missed that by 2 years) your chances of dying from the virus is 0.04%. As for people coming from all over the place, I should hope that if you are not well you will not come, same as with the flu, common cold, or whatever. Common sense. Otherwise I don't see this as any different than going to the local grocery store and mixing with a large group of people there. And just as in the grocery store, I'll wear a mask if it makes other people feel safer. My aim here is not to deny the virus, or tell, or encourage anyone to do anything against their wishes. I am only stating that the actual facts are there for all to see first hand without the media filter (it has been stated in one post that this is not political, but to a great extent it is!). Everyone needs to evaluate the facts for themselves and make their own decisions. I have made mine, and as I said, if the show is a go, I will be there. Having said the above, personally I do not see this virus as being particularly deadly to a person of reasonable health, without underling conditions who takes reasonable hygiene precautions as you would in flu season. Your opinion may vary hence you must make up your own mind.  Those of you who believe that it is too dangerous to come then do not come, but please stop, as some have implied, labeling the rest of us as irresponsible if we disagree with your opinions. Each to his/her own. 

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Ok...I've held off this far.....but this "DEMAND to wear masks" is going too far. Yes, it IS a BAD idea!

The data and the consequences of exposure is at BEST undecipherable at this time. There IS a spike in CV-19's spread....BUT, that doesn't mean more people will actually get sick, need hospitalization, or die. In fact, that has NOT been the case despite the headlines....SO far. A month from now will tell us more......

The data on what works and what doesn't to prevent its spread is also inconclusive, with medical "experts" divided pretty evenly on do/don't wear masks, do/don't quarantine; etc, etc., depending on who's being interviewed and even what week it is.

I personally know of local medical situations where masks/ppe are NOT being worn by medical personnel...one is actually a Covid testing site! My sister, an RN, was exposed at her hospital (along with most of the staff on her non-Covid care floor) just over a week ago....and they have NOT sent her home nor asked her to quarantine herself, and she can work her normal shifts. My point? It seems the medical people themselves realize that "the cat's out of the bag" so to speak and CV-19's "spread" CANNOT be stopped in any manner. Part of this reaction also has to due with it's overall lack of lethality among 99% of the population.

The only true thing everyone seems to agree on is that IF your over 65 and IF you have any serious health complications (any age), then YOU are more vulnerable to the virus. Now, that DOES represent probably 1/3 to 1/2 of the IPMS demographic, so IPMSUSA does need to take that into account for ALL shows in the future.

IPMS is stuck in a hard place due to not taking any decisive action earlier in the situation. That said, the options going forward are pretty clear:

1) IF the state of Texas and/or city of San Marcos "close" up again, and IPMSUSA has the chance to cancel without monetary penalty: CANCEL!

2) If things stay open as they are now, and continue to open up (which seems more likely); hold the Nats, bite the bullet, and try to limit the financial loss as much as possible.

3) Put in as many common sense precautions as possible and practical, spacing tables as much as space will allow, and having signage asking everyone to be as considerate to others as possible when it comes to social distancing. This will only be partly possible due to the nature of our shows, but that doesn't mean we personally cannot adapt as much as we can.

4) If YOU want to wear a mask, fine. I will then also show you additional respect and try to maintain my distance since you are obviously more concerned than myself. Do NOT tell me I HAVE to wear one just to make you "feel safe".  If you don't think you can feel safe around others without them, STAY HOME. After all, HOW do you function in you local community where you have to deal with others not masked? You certainly cannot demand THEY all do so, and you cannot make that demand on your fellow convention attendees.

5) Judging will be tough....but there again, if YOU don't feel you can judge, with or without a mask, and feel safe, DON'T JUDGE!

6) Keep in mind this is going to be one of the SMALLEST Nats in decades....and that lack of attendees will HELP the situation by reducing the crowding we're all used to at the Nats. It will not eliminate it...but it will be easier under the circumstances.

The National convention, if held, should be a simple reflection of America at large. YOU have a choice as to whether or not to attend, just as you choose where to go in your local community, depending on where you feel is safe or not. Going anywhere at any time involves risks, and you take precautions accordingly; whether that's being sure your car has good tires so as not to hydroplane in wet conditions, or masking yourself in order to feel like you're doing all you can to maintain your health. I hope that this is the spirit in which the San Marcos hosts are finalizing their plans.

If NOT, they better start putting forth their exact demands for attendees!

Gil

 

Edited by ghodges
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In my last post I edited my comments regarding the comparison of this this virus to the flu and didn't properly check my final version before sending. I'd like to clarify so that I am not misunderstood. What I was trying to say in response to David's 5-6% figure for Covid 19 fatalities as opposed to the flu was that he was comparing apples to oranges in that for the Covid 19 he was using only the confirmed number of cases for the denominator  whereas that for the flu uses an estimated number. In this last flue season (10/1/19 - 4/4/20) the CDC has estimated that there were between 39 and 56 million cases of the flu, with between 18 to 26 million medical visits leading to 410 to 740 hospitalizations and between 24 to 62 thousand deaths.  Using the largest case number and the largest death number leads to a fatality rate of 0.11%. If we were to assume that the Covid 19 virus has much the same infection rate and we therefore assume the same 56 million possible cases and then use the 120, 000 death number we would then have a fatality rate of 0.21%. That is what I was trying to convey.

Sorry for the confusion but I have been retired now for 5 1/2 years and my communication skills have obviously deteriorated. Luckily my modeling skills have improved (or at least that is what my near 72 year old eyes are telling me!). 

Edited by John Walker
grammar
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