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In view of the spread of coronavirus and the fact that the World Health Organization has now declared it a pandemic, and in the light of President Trump's message this evening, has any thought been given to cancelling this year’s Nationals?

Edited by SkyKing

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A lot can change in 4 months, but since I was considering getting my airline tickets, it would be nice to know.

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Personally, I would like to hear IPMS/USA's official current position on the subject.

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7 hours ago, Rusty White said:

Personally, I would like to hear IPMS/USA's official current position on the subject.

👍 .....But isn't is up the the club putting it on?  Just saw the Texas state is monitoring 10 people  but has take no steps to close school.

Edited by PeteJ

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Because of the confusion and uncertainty amongst political leaders and health care experts, it is probably unrealistic- if not unfair- to ask the host chapter to be able to make a prediction about what, if any, travel and gathering restrictions will be recommended or enforced four and one- half months from now. Neither, for the same reason,  can they be expected to guess at the individual health risk for any one member traveling and attending a gathering of this size - four and one- half months from now. 

I have my hotel reservation and my airline ticket. Unless I cannot fly due to a national travel ban and/or the National Convention is not held because such group gatherings are forbidden, I will be going. This, I think, should be the position of the membership at this point as a show of support and confidence in our organization. An early panic based on inadequate information NOW could irreversibly damage the show for no good, sound, scientific reason, thereby unfairly punishing our friends and fellow members who have been working hard for two- plus years to put on the show. 

For now, as King George VI would have said:” Keep calm, and carry on.” 

Regards, Nick- Senior Citizen- Filippone

 

Edited by Nick Filippone

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Nick, I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said, but it would be nice to know that there are contingency plans in effect by both the organizers and national officers.

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Greetings all,

I realize that the Corona Virus (COVID-19) has taken the world by storm in a rather quick fashion the past few weeks and as a result we are seeing many, many cancellations of a wide variety of events…especially well known events, meets, conventions around the world as well as here in the US. Let me break my response down into fact and opinion.

FACT: I have reached out to both the City of San Marcos and the IPMS/USA E-Board to let them know that the convention planning committee is keeping an eye on the COVID-19 outbreak and how it could potentially affect our convention slated for late July. The response I received from the city was that, as of the past week, they consider the threat to be low. Like us, they are keeping an eye on the situation and have, as of March 5th, assessed the threat to be low. Please check out the following link for more info from the City of San Marcos:

https://www.sanmarcostx.gov/279/Coronavirus-and-Flu-Information-and-Prev

As a result of all the information we have at the current time (March 12th) we are continuing planning for the 2020 convention. All team members are (generally) healthy and continue to nail down details for the upcoming show. In fact, we have been preparing the IPMS web store items (Pre-Registration, tours, T-shirts, trophy sponsorships, etc) to go live early next week. I, as convention chair, will continue to keep a line of communication open with the City of San Marcos on this very topic.

OPINION: It is my personal opinion that a lot can happen in the coming weeks and months and at this point it is too early to make any changes. Yes, I fully recognize that airlines are not as forgiving when it comes to cancelling or changing flights but as of this time, I think it would be unwise to make any changes when the show is still 138 days away. From what I have seen in the media a lot of what is being cancelled are shows/events that are happening in the next several weeks. If these drastic measures are successful in the short term then COVID-19 will hopefully be in the rear-view-mirror come show-time.

I, like many of you, are very, very excited about the 2020 convention this summer. I will continue, along with Team 2020, give it our very best effort to make it a success.

If the planning committee has news regarding COVID-19 and its potential negative effects on the 2020 Convention I will post the info the main page of the convention website: www.nats2020.com.

If you have specific questions regarding planning around COVID-19 please e-mail me at director.nats2020@gmail.com but be forewarned I do not have much more info than what is being reported via the various media outlets…and will most probably answer with the words I typed above.

Best Regards,

Len Pilhofer

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27 minutes ago, LenPilhofer said:

Greetings all,

I realize that the Corona Virus (COVID-19) has taken the world by storm in a rather quick fashion the past few weeks and as a result we are seeing many, many cancellations of a wide variety of events…especially well known events, meets, conventions around the world as well as here in the US. Let me break my response down into fact and opinion.

FACT: I have reached out to both the City of San Marcos and the IPMS/USA E-Board to let them know that the convention planning committee is keeping an eye on the COVID-19 outbreak and how it could potentially affect our convention slated for late July. The response I received from the city was that, as of the past week, they consider the threat to be low. Like us, they are keeping an eye on the situation and have, as of March 5th, assessed the threat to be low. Please check out the following link for more info from the City of San Marcos:

https://www.sanmarcostx.gov/279/Coronavirus-and-Flu-Information-and-Prev

As a result of all the information we have at the current time (March 12th) we are continuing planning for the 2020 convention. All team members are (generally) healthy and continue to nail down details for the upcoming show. In fact, we have been preparing the IPMS web store items (Pre-Registration, tours, T-shirts, trophy sponsorships, etc) to go live early next week. I, as convention chair, will continue to keep a line of communication open with the City of San Marcos on this very topic.

OPINION: It is my personal opinion that a lot can happen in the coming weeks and months and at this point it is too early to make any changes. Yes, I fully recognize that airlines are not as forgiving when it comes to cancelling or changing flights but as of this time, I think it would be unwise to make any changes when the show is still 138 days away. From what I have seen in the media a lot of what is being cancelled are shows/events that are happening in the next several weeks. If these drastic measures are successful in the short term then COVID-19 will hopefully be in the rear-view-mirror come show-time.

I, like many of you, are very, very excited about the 2020 convention this summer. I will continue, along with Team 2020, give it our very best effort to make it a success.

If the planning committee has news regarding COVID-19 and its potential negative effects on the 2020 Convention I will post the info the main page of the convention website: www.nats2020.com.

If you have specific questions regarding planning around COVID-19 please e-mail me at director.nats2020@gmail.com but be forewarned I do not have much more info than what is being reported via the various media outlets…and will most probably answer with the words I typed above.

Best Regards,

Len Pilhofer

Len, Thank you.  That is the type of information I wanted to hear.  Keep us updated.

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Great work, Len. As long as you and your comrades are continuing your preparations to put on the National Convention,  I will continue my preparations to attend. You can count on me to register as soon as registration opens! Good luck! 

Regards, Nick

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Like Nick, I have my room and am planning to be there. See you at registration, Nick!

Pat D

Edited by patd

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Colleagues. I am from Siberia, Russia. We also talk about COVID-19. We have a ban on meetings of 5,000 people. There are no patients in my region. There are very few ads in Russia. In April I’m going to the city of Tomsk for a model show. It seems to me that COVID-19 is a hoax. This is beneficial to someone. In September I spend our show. https://web.facebook.com/groups/984261238627727/. I invite you!

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Based on much deep research and information about this virus that I have done, I'd say it would not be necessary to close the convention. First of all, it has been proven this virus cannot live in summer heat, so once everything starts warming up; the number of cases will drop dramatically. July is certainly a much more safe month than the cold months we are going through now.

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13 hours ago, Mark Deliduka said:

Based on much deep research and information about this virus that I have done, I'd say it would not be necessary to close the convention. First of all, it has been proven this virus cannot live in summer heat, so once everything starts warming up; the number of cases will drop dramatically. July is certainly a much more safe month than the cold months we are going through now.

Mark, so far nothing is proven about this virus.  Although other forms of Corona virus do become less virulent in warmer months, that has not been proven with this particular strain. Witness the fact that as of yesterday Australia has reported 130 cases.  Right now they are in the heart of a very hot summer.   There is no hard evidence that this will go way as things warm up. It is a wait and see thing and not something you can plan on. 

I do agree that it is way too early to cancel now, but not too early to have a backup plan. 

 

Edited by PeteJ
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I also hope that the Convention will be able to go on and I will be there if it does.  It would be nice if you were proven correct. However, Mark, it is irresponsible to make such a prediction about the course of this disease when NO other health care expert or epidemiologist is currently able to do so. Over and over, each of these medical and communicable disease professionals has said ‘ We just do not know’ - not yet, anyway.

To a great extent, it is whistling in the dark that has got us into this crisis. Facts and competent science alone will get us out of it. Perpetuating misinformation does not help, however well intentioned.

Let us stick to building models and let those with the knowledge and training and experience to, when they are able, advise us about what the course of this pandemic  is likely to be. 

We are a small organization, but we can impress many others by being smart, calm, responsible citizens. 

Nick Filippone, M.D. 

 

 

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Well I have been truly and properly chastised; I offer my apologies.

 

You're right Nick, time to head back to the bench....

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On 3/12/2020 at 10:05 AM, PeteJ said:

👍 .....But isn't is up the the club putting it on?  Just saw the Texas state is monitoring 10 people  but has take no steps to close school.

I don't know, and I'm sure there many modelers out there in the same state of confusion as I.  Just an official statement from either the host chapter or the E-board would be nice.

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As I have stated above: "If the planning committee has news regarding COVID-19 and its potential negative effects on the 2020 Convention I will post the info the main page of the convention website: www.nats2020.com."

As of right now the main page of the Nats2020 web site states this: "COVID-19 Update! The convention team is still moving forward with planning for the 2020 convention. While we are well aware of all the social distancing and quarantine policies in place around the country these are temporary in nature and we are continuing with the assumption that by late July these will be restrictions will be lifted. The planning team will continue to track this issue closely. Click here for more information from the City of San Marcos."

A good place to get up-to-date information from the City of San Marcos regarding government restrictions on public gatherings is: https://www.sanmarcostx.gov/279/Coronavirus-Information-and-Prevention.

I have no more information (and more importantly, facts) to share except that planning continues. 

-Len

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I do not think it is fair to expect Len and his team to predict with any certainty what public health experts cannot. Predictions change almost daily. 

The possible scenarios are almost limitless! Best case- the pandemic has run it’s course by July and there are no travel or gathering restrictions anywhere. Or it is still roaring along everywhere and no one can move. Or it has burned itself out on the east coast, but at peak in a city like San Marcos. Or San Marcos has been relatively spared and the last thing they want is a lot of carriers from New York State or California, for example, to fan the flames.

I have no doubt that Len and his people are in a high state of anxiety about this. All each of us, potentially has to deal with is the disappointment of not having a National to go to this year. They are wrestling with trying to decide, after two long years of hard work and planning and dedication, if they will have to pull the plug on it and when.

What if San Marcos allows such a gathering, but there is a travel ban from enough so called “hot spots” that attendance significantly suffers? What if our convention site is a hospital by the end of July? What if the airline industry is so broken down by this that you couldn’t get a flight, regardless of how far in advance you made a reservation?

For that matter, how many of our mostly elderly members will be ill with it or too understandably worried about contracting it (if they had avoided it by the end of July) to venture from what up to that point will have been the apparent safety of their home, even if permitted to do so? What if the National is held, but for such reasons, the numbers are so low that room and banquet minimums are not achieved? 

What if some of us succumb to this disease?

Let’s be respectful and appreciative of the San Marcos team- and patient. And, for goodness sake, do whatever you can to stay healthy! 

Nick

 

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 I live in a city of 120,000 pop  east of Houston,Texas.  We are under a stay in place order.  No gatherings or non essential business. 

If the City of San Marcos or the Gov. of Texas issues an order it will shut down the convention period.  Houston is now pretty much shuttered through May. 

The hosting club has zero say on this. I know this stinks but this is a new reality folks.  My son supervises a valet service at a resort in San Antonio, the resort is closed.  It might not reopen if this epidemic continues through the summer. 

We have not peaked yet and we as a country are science ignorant.  I am a retired Research Chemist/ Center Director with a specialty in nano characterization (XRD and Electron Microscopy) and I am dumbfounded on what I hear and read on the news and social media.  The majority including the WH have no clue on how complex this pandemic is.  

I do not mean to sound negative,  but a lot of folks are not going to their jobs back when the pandemic slows, it will be a rude awaking to all.

I will be there if the conditions improve and look forward to meeting everyone.

Isolate and take care , most cases 80% recover with no ICU etc.  Stay positive.

I will be happy to discus some of the science through PM if anyone wants, no political rants are helpful, just the science please.

Edited by Mister300
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Over here in the UK severe restrictions came in nationwide about a week ago.    Hopefully Telford will not be affected in November but who knows if we will be clear by than or not. Venues like the International Centre are being converted into multi bed field hospitals at the moment. I think it will be a very different world when we all come out of this. Keep safe guys!

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